Trump’s CPAC Speech Was About Keeping His Base, Not Him
The world was once again exposed to the incoherent ramblings of former President Donald Trump on Sunday.
Speaking at CPAC, the twice-impeached former executive triggered ‘Nam flashbacks for those who had suffered the abuse of listening to him for the past five years or so, delivering his now infamous stream-of-consciousness style of speech.
While many in attendance and those watching on TV expected Trump to try and regain his stranglehold on the Republican Party by announcing a run in 2024 presidential election, there was none to be had. Even The Donald seems to realize that he has basically zero chance of actually being able to effectively run for office, with mounting criminal and civil cases expected to crash down on the real estate mogul soon, depleting his time and resources.
So why have Trump featured so prominently at CPAC then, when up-and-coming members of the party could have been given the stage and a pecking order could be established?
Without Trump’s rabid base backing whomever the Republican nominee will be, there is little chance that the party’s fortunes will be reversed in 2024. With thousands of voters leaving the party in the wake of the January 6th Capitol attack, Trump supporters have only increased their influence within the GOP, leaving even more moderate Republican lawmakers less outspoken about diminishing Trump’s role in the party.
The CPAC straw poll showed that 55% of those in attendance wanted Trump to be the 2024 nominee, with a surprising 21% favoring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as their pick. Without Trump as an option, DeSantis’ numbers shot up to 43%, easily the top alternative to the former president.
A Trump disciple, DeSantis has gained national notoriety recently for his abysmal Covid response and retribution against those that dare speak out against him, hallmarks of the Trump playbook.
Trump’s political antics and lack of subtlety may end up being the path forward for many Republicans if they are unable to shift the direction of the party. Even if Trump himself is out of the spotlight, his influence will still be felt as the far-right can of worms has been opened.
Ready to flex the muscle of that remaining influence, Trump took direct aim at the Republican members of Congress who had voted to impeach him in the House and Senate for his role in the January 6th attack. He called for their ouster via primary challenges, which Trump is well-equipped to fund thanks to his PAC, which is bankrolled by his supporters.
Trump ended his speech with his standard bit of vagueness and left the party unsure of what his true intentions are. While assuring the crowd of a Republican return to the White House, whether he believed it to be him was left unsaid by Trump, instead choosing to end by saying, “I wonder who that will be. Who? Who? Who will that be? I wonder.”
Even with the open-ended nature of his remarks, it’s clear that the expectation is for Trump to eventually be pulled out of the race by outside issues. That’s why there has been an unwavering support of the former president by the likes of Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Josh Hawley of Missouri, who both have machinations of their own presidential campaigns in 2024.
By being able to point to their track record of supporting Trump, they are hoping to be tapped as his political heir apparent and co-opt the base for their presidential run. Coupled with the Republican voter base at large, they are hoping to ride the surge and win the presidency.
There may be an inherent flaw in this tactic, however. While taking ownership of Trump’s base would make any candidate a clear cut favorite, it is far from a guarantee for victory. Trump himself was unable to win the popular vote with his base, having to rely on key states to win the Electoral College in 2016.
Lacking the charisma and rapport with his supporters, those looking to fill Trump’s shoes will find themselves unable to drive people to the polls as effectively as the former president. We can see an example of this in the Senate runoffs in Georgia, as not having Trump on the ballot suppressed the number of conservative voters who turned out. Repeated claims of voting fraud may have added to the problem, but it’s clear that without Trump on the ticket the base won’t show up.
So now the GOP is left with the age old problem of whether to fish or cut bait. Continuing to fish in the Trumpy waters of the far-right has not been overly successful as late, with Democrats having taken control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.
Cutting bait could prove to be even more disastrous as even though Trump has vowed he will not start his own party, a rebuke from Republican leadership could easily change his mind. A majority of Republican voters have already said that they would leave for a Trump party, essentially killing the GOP in the process.
Regardless of what ends up happening, Republicans are left to grapple with a monster of their own making and could leave the door open for Democrats to poach the more moderate voters leaving the conservative party in droves. It very well may end up being death by a Trump boulder or by a thousand Democrat papercuts for the GOP.
