The Impeachment Trial May Not Be What We Think It Is
After three days, House managers in the second impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump closed their arguments and rested. It will now fall to Trump’s defense team to make their case for acquitting the disgraced former executive for his role in inciting the riot that took place on January 6th at the Capitol.
While it is abundantly clear that there is virtually no chance that the evenly split Senate will convict Trump, the information that has come out during the prosecution’s case is damning to say the least. Videos and graphics laying out timelines and actions taken during the siege and the leadup to it have left many disturbed, even Republican members of the Senate.
After the first day of arguments, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana joined Democrats and five other GOP members in affirming the constitutionality of trying the former president now that he is out of office. Having voted previously that the trial was unconstitutional, Cassidy said of his change in vote, “If anyone disagrees with my vote and would like an explanation, I ask them to listen to the arguments presented by the House Managers and former President Trump’s lawyers. The House managers had much stronger constitutional arguments. The president’s team did not.”
Trump’s defense team has been widely panned by both sides as rambling and ineffective, seemingly at a loss on how to proceed. Defense attorney Bruce Castor even went so far as to admit that the House managers had effectively preempted their arguments, stating “I’ll be quite frank with you: We changed what we were going to do on account of we thought the House impeachment managers presentation was well-done.”
Regardless of the arguments that the defense puts forth, there is little to no expectation that anything they will do or say will lead to the conviction of Donald Trump.
But, it’s not really clear if that was the end goal with this impeachment.
Democratic leadership knew that getting 17 Republican senators to side with them was a pipe dream at best. It would take a signed and taped confession by Trump played on loop for there to be a chance of conviction, and even then there would be some GOP members who would still vote to acquit.
While keyboard politicians like myself are left in fits over how any reasonably-minded person could let Trump off, not that I’m saying there’s that many Republican senators who are reasonably-minded, we have to think beyond what is happening in Congress.
Who stands to gain the most from a Trump acquittal?
The easy answer is Donald Trump himself. Twice now, Democrats have tried to bring him down with the powers of the Constitution and failed. He is Teflon Don when he has the backing of the GOP.
But that’s where it ends.
With the news that the Fulton County District Attorney’s office has opened an investigation into Trump’s tampering with the election results, there is real peril here for The Donald. Trying to coerce anyone to commit election fraud is a felony in the state of Georgia and there are recorded calls of him doing just that.
We also can’t forget about the ongoing investigations by the Southern District of New York into Trump’s financial dealings and possible fraud as well as campaign finance violations in connection to the admitted hush money paid to Stormy Daniels.
So, overall not a huge victory for a possible future Trump campaign as he’ll be politically sidelined by a number of other legal issues for what appears to be a couple years.
How about Republicans? What do they stand to win?
Well, they will be able to hold onto a majority of Trump’s voter base and try to ride that support to pick up seats in the House and Senate in the 2022 midterms. The House seems more likely, but that’s all they would need to stifle any further advancement of President Joe Biden’s agenda.
The loyalty of Trump’s base for backing him could also come in handy for the 2024 presidential election, banking on the former president’s ability to bring out voters. This could have unintended consequences, however.
As more and more information and graphic video has come out showing how bad the events of January 6th actually were, the public rebuke of anyone involved has begun to grow with a recent CBS News/YouGov poll showing that a majority of Americans, 56%, now favor the conviction of Trump.
Tying themselves so firmly to Trump could backfire on Republicans if even more damning evidence is revealed. While their hardcore base of Trump supporters would stick around, more traditional conservatives could defect to more moderate Democrats for an election cycle or two, put off by the Trumpism that has infiltrated the party and still remains.
A lot to win, but also a lot to lose for the GOP.
Democrats certainly don’t have anything to win with a Trump acquittal, right?
Well, every loss for Trump and the GOP above is obviously a win for Democrats, but it’s all theoretical. Where they really win big is with their own base.
Imagine if Trump is acquitted and it comes out in a couple of months that there was direct coordination between someone in the White House and the rioters at the Capitol. Having Republican members of Congress on the record backing the Trump administration and being able to run ads and hang an even further disgraced presidency around their necks would undoubtedly be effective.
Also, running challengers against incumbent Republicans who voted to acquit Trump could energize liberal voters to come out and punish the GOP. Democrats can make the case that they are the defense against people like Trump and tried to punish him, but were blocked by Republicans from doing so.
By going forward with the impeachment trial there is the risk that Democrats will alienate voters who are looking to move past the Trump presidency and return to normal. There isn’t much risk involved with that, though, as Democrats overwhelmingly support the impeachment and a growing number of Republicans do as well.
Plenty to be gained by Democrats it seems.
With Trump’s defense wrapping up today and the end of the trial soon upon us, the partisan divide is as apparent as ever. A handful of Republicans in safe seats will join Democrats in voting to convict, but it won’t be enough.
There will be an acquittal.
We have to wonder if the political capital that Democrats stand to gain from it has been the actual goal all along.
