Republicans Will Continue Embrace of Trump Because It’s Their Only Future
Donald Trump’s tumultuous time as president will be coming to an end in a little over six weeks time. Calls for the Republican Party to distance itself from the problematic figure have been abundant as moderates try to wrestle back control of the party.
Unfortunately, it won’t be that simple.
If Republicans were to openly try to push Trump out of his position as the party leader, the amount of backlash would almost certainly fragment the GOP, and all but guarantee continued success for Democrats going forward.
In a Politico/Morning Consult poll released on November 24th, three weeks after the general election, a majority of respondents, 53%, said that they would vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican primary if he chose to run. This number dwarfs the support for Vice President Mike Pence, with only 12% and the only other possible candidate with double digit numbers.
In the same poll, Donald Trump Jr also received 8% support, meaning that the Trump clan accounted for 61% of total support from those who took part in the poll.
While the current election cycle is still yet to be completed, with President-elect Joe Biden not even having been sworn in yet, the continued support for Trump from the Republican base will make it near impossible for other candidates to challenge him.
Traditionally, presidential candidates tended to wait until after the midterm elections to begin their campaigns, but as we all well know Donald Trump is not one for traditions.
With his continued push to undermine the results of the 2020 presidential election, it appears that Trump is doing all he can to ensure that he remains the power player in the Republican Party. He has all but announced a run in the 2024 election, hoping his attack on the electoral process will keep his base energized until then.
Even if members of the GOP find his rhetoric to be dangerous and counter to party ideals, they risk their political capital and careers should they dare publicly admonish the lame duck president.
In years past, the outgoing president would give way to the new batch of contenders and begin booking dates for a post-presidential speaking tour to cement their legacy. With Trump, however, the tour never ended in the first place.
Trump has continued to hold rallies throughout his presidency, even doing so now that he has lost. This has ensured that his rabid base within the GOP has stayed loyal and essentially now holds the party hostage, threatening to take his electorate with him and wage war on Republicans.
While Democrats have had their own internal divisions on display, with the more progressive portion of the party taking shots at moderates, there is little to no indication that they are at the tipping point of cannibalizing themselves like Republicans are.
This is why we see so many conservative lawmakers around the country readily lining up to parrot Trump’s rhetoric on any myriad of topics, particularly the results of the general election. Much like the Tea Party movement swept the legs out from under Establishment Republicans and took the party by storm, Trumpists are now threatening to do the same, by attacking from an even-further right position.
So, now the question becomes whether the GOP is willing to take it in the teeth and cede power for an election cycle or two to bring the party back towards their more traditional roots.
Republicans are hyper aware of the shifting trends in historically red states like Georgia and Texas. They know that the strategy of boiling down their party to the most hardcore tenents of the alt-right movement runs the risk of alienating independents and conservative moderates alike, leaving them to either stay home or vote Democrat on election day.
The GOP invited the fox into the henhouse with the promise that he would protect them and they are now at its mercy.
